Gingrich Wins South Carolina, Now Eyes Florida

Heading into the South Carolina primary last week, Mitt Romney had all but locked up the Republican nomination for president. South Carolinians proved they had other plans, however, as they stormed the booths Saturday and propelled Newt Gingrich to victory. In a distant third and fourth fell Santorum and Ron Paul, respectively, while Texas Governor Rick Perry dropped out just before the voting began.

Gingrich’s win comes as a relative surprise as no more than ten earlier Gingrich was pronounced dead and gone after finishing very low in Iowa and New Hampshire. This latest victory once again signals how very abnormal and unexpected this election cycle has been; Gingrich alone is riding a roller coaster of support, reaching peaks and valleys several times throughout the past year.

The South Carolina victory is mostly due to a popular showing in televised debates last week where the former Speaker of the House criticized front-runner Romney as well as the news media for their various faults. Raucous audiences at the debates cheered on the attacks and slated Gingrich as the combative candidate Southern Republicans are looking for.

This success is a big one, too. Since 1980, every Republican to win South Carolina has gone on to secure the nomination. Gingrich looks to continue this trend, although this year a victory in the Palmetto State is anything but a guarantee for victory.

The reason is twofold: first, the calendar for the next six weeks favors Romney; second, Florida looks to be the big decider this year instead of South Carolina.

In Florida, Romney has a slight lead. Considering he is still leading national polls and has been one of two frontrunners for the better part of a year (the other frontrunner has changed just about monthly), Gingrich would need a decisive victory to usurp the throne of odds-on-favorite. Even a virtual tie would most likely prove not enough with the aforementioned strength of schedule for Romney.

And while it’s not impossible—Gingrich has continually surprised pundits and journalists for months—a loss or tie seems unlikely for Romney as he is more organized, better funded, and less divisive than Newt, all characteristics favorable to Florida voters.

Once again, the impact of an early, influential, primary has been minimized by the more important succeeding primary. South Carolina defied expectations and selected Gingrich, will Florida do the same?

- Kit

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January 27th, 2012 | Dan | Comments Off |