The Iowa Caucus

Voters across Iowa came out to schools, fire stations and community centers Tuesday to show their support for personal favorites in the Republican field for president. Though essentially ending in a tie between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, Romney officially won by a mere eight votes over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

Despite Romney pulling out a victory, the more interesting story was the rise of Santorum. Long polling at 1% nationally amongst likely voters, Santorum made a quick surge last week and rallied Iowans around his strong campaign presence in the Hawkeye State. Santorum is a devout Catholic and appeals to the social conservative prevalent throughout much of central Iowa. He is largely in step with other candidates economically and has a more aggressive foreign policy platform than the other Republicans vying for president.

None of these positions or qualities, however, is what actually caused Santorum’s strong showing. As with the rest of the suddenly rising candidates in the past ten months (remember Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Gingrich) Santorum is more an “anti-Mitt” than a legitimate contender. Like all the others, Santorum will likely fall in polls and public opinion once the electorate learns more about his past actions and political record — a record that is quite aggressive militarily and lends itself to the big government tendencies of the 1990s, two characteristics the GOP is starting to trend away from.

Indeed, Romney gained the most from the results of Tuesday night. A state he lost in 2008, the Romney team decided to not spend much time there this cycle. Contrast that to Santorum’s visit to every county in the state and the campaign’s consumption of almost all available resources there, and it becomes apparent how much more popular Romney really is than Santorum.

Additionally, Iowa also set Ron Paul up for the long run. Paul matched Romney’s number of delegates (the ones who actually vote for the nominees come decision time) and is polling pretty consistently at second in New Hampshire, the next state to have an election. Pundits continually say he is unelectable, yet his strong showing in Iowa, and presumably next week in New Hampshire as well, prove that to be at least somewhat false. He did best amongst all candidates in Iowa for voters under 30 and he has strong fundraising numbers nationally. If he doesn’t win the nomination, a third party run is not out of the question whatsoever.

The second-tier candidates coming out of Iowa were New Gingrich and Rick Perry, who both locked up two delegates but in general had much smaller voter support. With their dwindling poll numbers it looks like they are likely to drop out soon unless one or the other wins big in South Carolina.

What this year’s Iowa caucus proved, as it usually does, is that it is too early to name a “no-contest” winner. But it also, as it usually does, narrowed down the field and separated the leaders from the second-tier.

- Kit

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January 6th, 2012 | Mara | Comments Off |