Nevada, Minnesota, Missouri, And Colorado Primaries

This past Saturday Mitt Romney won the Nevada Caucus, doubling the votes of his nearest competitors Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich and trouncing last place finisher Rick Santorum by over 30 percentage points. Yet, unlike previous states, Nevada seems to incite little national attention and significance.

Likewise, Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri’s nominating elections take place today, but don’t really offer any promise of shaking up the current Republican field, even though preliminary polls suggest a vast array of winners (Santorum in Minnesota, Romney or Gingrich in Colorado, and Santorum in Missouri).

Why do these states’ primaries, and the next few in the following weeks, seem to matter less to the candidates, public and media than previous ones?

The truth is, after the first few influential states, February is more a gear-up month amongst remaining candidates for Super Tuesday on March 6^th. On Super Tuesday, ten states hold primaries. This spectacle offers not only a huge momentum for successful candidates but also offers 437 delegate votes up for grabs.

Such a massive amount of delegates is more than enough incentive for the three second tier candidates to stay involved until at least that date. With the Republican Party very divided over Mitt Romney, any slip from the former Massachusetts Governor in the next month could give Gingrich, Paul or Santorum the break they need to steal the votes necessary to garner the nomination—which is awarded at the Republican National Convention in August. It is unlikely at this point that Romney could lose the nomination, but feasible enough that each man has a real reason to stay involved.

To be sure, every candidate wants to win each state and collect valuable delegates in these small states over the next month. Delegates, who are committed to their vote until the Convention, are a finite number and can be swayed by hard work and earnest beliefs.

This is why each of the remaining candidates is doing as much as they can to shore up every vote possible — whether the state’s primary is popular or not.

- Kit

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February 8th, 2012 | Dan | Comments Off |